When legality becomes selective and natural wealth is not accompanied by transparency and independent institutions, small countries are the first to pay the price.
When International Law Ceases to Be a Barrier
Developments in Venezuela are not just another “distant” crisis in Latin America. They are a test of whether international law continues to function as a barrier against the arbitrariness of the powerful—or whether it is being turned into a tool used at will. For countries like Cyprus, which base their security and survival on legality rather than power, what is at stake is existential.
Unilateral Intervention and Dangerous Precedents
The decision by the United States to proceed with actions leading to the arrest and transfer of President Maduro to New York to stand trial under U.S. law constitutes a qualitative rupture. This is not merely political pressure or sanctions, but a direct challenge to the principle of state sovereignty and the creation of a precedent that undermines the role of the United Nations.
At the UN Security Council on 5 January 2026, the Secretary-General stated that “I remain deeply concerned that the rules of international law were not respected in relation to the military action of 3 January.” At the same meeting, Jeffrey Sachs said: “Peace and the survival of humanity depend on whether the United Nations Charter continues to serve as a living foundation of international law or is allowed to fall into disrepute.”
When “Legality” Becomes a Matter of Timing
However, the fact that the Maduro regime has been authoritarian cannot serve as an alibi for dismantling the rules. Particularly troubling was the public statement by the Prime Minister of Greece, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, that “this is not the time to judge legality.” For countries like Cyprus, such an approach sends a dangerous message: that rules are not universal, but applied selectively—only when politically convenient.
Nicholas Maduro presided over a brutal and repressive dictatorship that brought about unimaginable suffering on the Venezuelan people. The end of his regime offers new hope for the country. This is not the time to comment on the legality of the recent actions.
— Prime Minister GR (@PrimeministerGR) January 3, 2026
From Democratic Election to Authoritarianism
Hugo Chávez was democratically elected in 1998, but governance gradually slid into authoritarianism, with the weakening of institutions and the concentration of power. Nationalisations in the energy sector after 2007, without adequate planning and institutional safeguards and massive corruption, accelerated the economic collapse. Under Nicolás Maduro, authoritarianism became entrenched and the humanitarian crisis reached unprecedented proportions.
Natural and Mineral Wealth as a Curse Without Institutions
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, as well as critical minerals of strategic importance. And yet, its productive capacity has collapsed. The country’s experience demonstrates that natural and mineral wealth, when not accompanied by transparency, accountability and strong institutions, is not a blessing but a curse. Instead of generating prosperity, it fuels corruption, authoritarianism and state disintegration.
Looking ahead, expert analysts estimate that it will take at least 5–10 years for Venezuela’s oil production to increase, even if taken over by U.S. companies, because massive modernisation investments are required, specialised personnel—currently lacking—must be developed, and time is needed to rebuild trust so that foreign companies are willing to invest.
The Humanitarian Dimension Behind the Numbers
In 2018, as the EU official responsible for humanitarian aid, I visited the Colombia–Venezuela border. In the Cúcuta area, where the Simón Bolívar Bridge connects the two countries, thousands of people crossed every day for a plate of food. People who had walked for days without eating would cross to Colombia, remain for one or two days to eat at the communal kitchens that had been set up, take a small amount of food, and return to their villages to share it with those who could not make the journey. When the borders closed, many were driven onto illegal and dangerous routes, into exploitation and conditions of modern slavery.
According to ECHO data for 2025, around 56% of the population lives in extreme poverty. Over the past ten years, approximately 8 million Venezuelans—one quarter of the population—have left the country, with seven out of eight settling in neighbouring Latin American states. Of those who remain, 7.9 million require humanitarian assistance to survive. Health and education systems have collapsed. A stark indicator of the cost-of-living crisis is that the food needs of an average family are about 250% higher than the average salary.
Unfortunately, the likelihood that Venezuelans’ living standards will improve in the coming years following recent events is very low.
From Venezuela to Greenland: The Logic of Power
The case of Greenland illustrates the shift in the international framework. Public references by President Trump to a possible “acquisition” of Greenland—an autonomous entity within the Kingdom of Denmark—demonstrate how easily power seeks to replace rules, even within the Euro-Atlantic security architecture.
On 6 January, when countries of the “coalition of the willing” met in Paris on Ukraine, they also issued a statement on Greenland, stressing that it belongs solely to its inhabitants.
Which other countries should be concerned now? Iran, Colombia, Cuba… And this is not only about what the United States intends to do; it is also about what Israel intends to do and how far it seeks to expand, given that the U.S. has demonstrably provided full cover for Israel’s expansionist actions. If the same logic is applied Russia and China, what will happen to Russia’s other neighbouring countries — and what about Taiwan? And what of Turkey and its intendions in the Aegean?
The Lesson for Cyprus: Security Through Rules
For Cyprus, the message is clear. In a world where legality is becoming selective, Cyprus’s strategy must be based on cooperation and alliances with countries that demonstrably respect international law and institutions—exactly as the European family to which we belong does—and not the opposite.
The lesson of Venezuela for Cyprus is unequivocal: its territorial integrity, its Exclusive Economic Zone, and its energy resources can only provide security, if they are grounded in transparency, lack of corruption and strong institutions and absolute adherence to international law, through alliances with countries that demonstrably respect it.
Cyprus cannot afford to balance between legality and arbitrariness. Clear alignment with the European Union and with other states that genuinely respect the rules is not an ideological choice; it is a strategy for survival.
